NOK will continue to appreciate against the Euro in 2024 – Commerzbank

The Norwegian Krone should be able to appreciate moderately against the Euro during the course of the year, in the view of Antje Praefcke, FX Analyst at Commerzbank.

Norges Bank is no longer falling behind the ECB in its determination

Norges Bank showed courage in June. It raised the key interest rate by 50 bps and signaled two more rate hikes this year. Compared to the ECB, it thus no longer appears less determined to tackle inflation risks. That is why I am comfortable with the forecast of a moderate appreciation of the Krone later this year and next year. 

Norges Bank does not see the first interest rate cuts until the end of 2024 when it expects inflation to fall. At the same time, the ECB will no longer act decisively against stubbornly high inflation next year with a view to the peripheral countries, so that a risk premium on the Euro is justified. This suggests that the NOK will continue to appreciate against the Euro in 2024.

Source: Commerzbank Research