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17 Jun 2013
Flash: EUR rally not sustainable but test of 1.35 viable - TDS
FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - Despite the break through 1.32/1.33, the technical outlook for EUR/USD remains cloudy, says Shaun Osborne, Chief FX Strategist at Toronto FX Research Team.
On one hand, Osborne sees the case for further short term strength on the basic outlook on the daily chart but, on the other hand, "if the market is still retracing the Q1 sell-off, gains appear to have stumbled a little at least around the 61.8% Fibonacci resistance at 1.3344 over the latter part of this week" the Strategist notes.
Osborne adds: "Trend momentum signals are constructive on the daily studies but less so on the shorter and longer-term timeframes, lacking the alignment we prefer to see to support a sustainable trend."
Osborne's own gut feeling remains, as he writes, "that the EUR rally is not sustainable, but we have been thinking that for a couple of weeks now and there is no clear sign of a turn lower, thus EUR/USD may test the 1.35 area (76.4% Fib at 1.3484)."
On one hand, Osborne sees the case for further short term strength on the basic outlook on the daily chart but, on the other hand, "if the market is still retracing the Q1 sell-off, gains appear to have stumbled a little at least around the 61.8% Fibonacci resistance at 1.3344 over the latter part of this week" the Strategist notes.
Osborne adds: "Trend momentum signals are constructive on the daily studies but less so on the shorter and longer-term timeframes, lacking the alignment we prefer to see to support a sustainable trend."
Osborne's own gut feeling remains, as he writes, "that the EUR rally is not sustainable, but we have been thinking that for a couple of weeks now and there is no clear sign of a turn lower, thus EUR/USD may test the 1.35 area (76.4% Fib at 1.3484)."