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23 Jan 2015
No policy changes expected by BoE in 2015 – RBS
FXStreet (Barcelona) - The Research Team at RBS forecast the BoE to hike rates only in Q1 2016, adding that with UK CPI on the verge of deflation, the chances of any policy change in this year are minimal.
Key Quotes
“The coming week brings the preliminary estimate of Q4 GDP where we expect a further deceleration in growth to 0.6% q/q (albeit still a trend-like rate of expansion). With the survey evidence tending to signal a further moderation in early 2015 and CPI on the verge of deflation (our latest inflation forecasts pitch us at the lower-end of the City forecaster distribution) there is little chance of any BoE policy change for the foreseeable future (the next MPC meeting is the following week, on 5 February). The RBS forecast remains for the first BoE Bank Rate rise to come in Q1 2016, with growing risks of a later move.”
Key Quotes
“The coming week brings the preliminary estimate of Q4 GDP where we expect a further deceleration in growth to 0.6% q/q (albeit still a trend-like rate of expansion). With the survey evidence tending to signal a further moderation in early 2015 and CPI on the verge of deflation (our latest inflation forecasts pitch us at the lower-end of the City forecaster distribution) there is little chance of any BoE policy change for the foreseeable future (the next MPC meeting is the following week, on 5 February). The RBS forecast remains for the first BoE Bank Rate rise to come in Q1 2016, with growing risks of a later move.”