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23 Jan 2015
Central Banks in focus; further risks ahead - TDS
FXStreet (Guatemala) - Analysts at TD Securities noted the Central Banks that are left for the month and risk factors around the events.
Key Quotes:
"FOMC Decision (Wed 28 Jan): Markets will look to the Fed for any signs that the central bank will stray from their expected path of normalizing rates later this year. The absence of a post-meeting press conference and updated economic projections will leave markets with only a communiqué to discern any noticeable change in stance, though we do not expect a strong shift in the Fed’s message. We also have US Q4 GDP on Friday, where we’re looking for a firm 3.2% reading on stronger consumer spending, just a hair above current consensus."
"RBNZ Decision (Wed 28 Jan): Markets will be watching the Antipodeans especially closely after the Bank of Canada rate cut has everyone wondering who might be next. We look for the RBNZ to drop the tightening bias and retreat to neutral, but no signs of any easing. Aussie CPI on Wed will also be watched closely, where a low print will accelerate calls for a Feb RBA cut, and although we pushed out our first RBA hike to Q3 2016, we do not look for further easing from the RBA either."
"EM Central Banks (ongoing): An extremely busy week for EM rate decisions, with Hungary on the 27th, Malaysia on the 28th, Mexico and South Africa on the 29th, and Russia on the 30th. Of these we think that all but the latter will hold rates. Russia remains the only real question mark, with the possibility that the CBR, emboldened by relative RUB stability, starts withdrawing some policy tightness."
Key Quotes:
"FOMC Decision (Wed 28 Jan): Markets will look to the Fed for any signs that the central bank will stray from their expected path of normalizing rates later this year. The absence of a post-meeting press conference and updated economic projections will leave markets with only a communiqué to discern any noticeable change in stance, though we do not expect a strong shift in the Fed’s message. We also have US Q4 GDP on Friday, where we’re looking for a firm 3.2% reading on stronger consumer spending, just a hair above current consensus."
"RBNZ Decision (Wed 28 Jan): Markets will be watching the Antipodeans especially closely after the Bank of Canada rate cut has everyone wondering who might be next. We look for the RBNZ to drop the tightening bias and retreat to neutral, but no signs of any easing. Aussie CPI on Wed will also be watched closely, where a low print will accelerate calls for a Feb RBA cut, and although we pushed out our first RBA hike to Q3 2016, we do not look for further easing from the RBA either."
"EM Central Banks (ongoing): An extremely busy week for EM rate decisions, with Hungary on the 27th, Malaysia on the 28th, Mexico and South Africa on the 29th, and Russia on the 30th. Of these we think that all but the latter will hold rates. Russia remains the only real question mark, with the possibility that the CBR, emboldened by relative RUB stability, starts withdrawing some policy tightness."