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23 Jan 2015
UK facing key events next week - TDS
FXStreet (Guatemala) - Analysts at TD Securities explained three main events for the UK next week.
Key Quotes:
"Q4 GDP (Tues 27 Jan): We’re in line with consensus in looking for GDP to expand by 0.6% Q/Q in Q4, with the details likely to show struggling industrial and construction sectors, but a much stronger performance on the services side. This will cap off a very strong year for UK economic growth."
"Carney in Davos (Sat 24 Jan): Governor Carney speaks in Davos on both Friday and Saturday. We’ll be looking for his impressions of what the ECB’s QE announcement means for the UK economy, and any further hints at what’s to come in the February Inflation Report. With the Minutes having just shifted to a 9-0 vote and removing the last vestiges of a tightening bias, and another sizeable downgrade to come to the inflation forecasts, we see no urgency for the BoE to change the message now."
"Post-ECB BoE Repricing (ongoing): With the SNB and ECB having eased further, and the Riksbank and the Norges Bank expected to do more, the BoE is increasingly looking like the odd man out in Europe. While we think that market expectations for only 25bps of hikes out to the end of 2016 are overly dovish and it is getting more attractive to look for opportunities to position for eventual 2016 tightening, that doesn’t mean that markets can’t go even further, with the risk of an EU referendum in 2016-2017 to weigh more as the May elections draw closer."
Key Quotes:
"Q4 GDP (Tues 27 Jan): We’re in line with consensus in looking for GDP to expand by 0.6% Q/Q in Q4, with the details likely to show struggling industrial and construction sectors, but a much stronger performance on the services side. This will cap off a very strong year for UK economic growth."
"Carney in Davos (Sat 24 Jan): Governor Carney speaks in Davos on both Friday and Saturday. We’ll be looking for his impressions of what the ECB’s QE announcement means for the UK economy, and any further hints at what’s to come in the February Inflation Report. With the Minutes having just shifted to a 9-0 vote and removing the last vestiges of a tightening bias, and another sizeable downgrade to come to the inflation forecasts, we see no urgency for the BoE to change the message now."
"Post-ECB BoE Repricing (ongoing): With the SNB and ECB having eased further, and the Riksbank and the Norges Bank expected to do more, the BoE is increasingly looking like the odd man out in Europe. While we think that market expectations for only 25bps of hikes out to the end of 2016 are overly dovish and it is getting more attractive to look for opportunities to position for eventual 2016 tightening, that doesn’t mean that markets can’t go even further, with the risk of an EU referendum in 2016-2017 to weigh more as the May elections draw closer."