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13 Aug 2013
Flash: GBP/USD gains expected to exhaust at 1.5700 – RBS
FXstreet.com (New York) - The RBS Research team analyzes the outlook of the GBP against the EUR and USD.
Key quotes
UK Labor market dynamics will undoubtedly now see a far greater focus and this may well see increased FX volatility around their publication. The next Labor Market release is on Wednesday (August 14th).
“The unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 7.8%. A bigger than expected fall may see GBP strengthen significantly. Wednesday also sees that release of the minutes from the August MPC. Carney avoided answering a question about how much support there was from the new framework at last week’s press conference. This may suggest that there was disagreement on the MPC. Evidence of significant disagreement may play GBP negative.”
“Overall we see greater scope for GBP to strengthen over the short-term against the EUR than the USD. Given last week’s announcement and the level of inflation in the Euro area, the pressure on the ECB to keep policy accommodative is far greater than it is for the BoE or the Fed – GBP/USD gains are expected to exhaust around 1.57.”
Key quotes
UK Labor market dynamics will undoubtedly now see a far greater focus and this may well see increased FX volatility around their publication. The next Labor Market release is on Wednesday (August 14th).
“The unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 7.8%. A bigger than expected fall may see GBP strengthen significantly. Wednesday also sees that release of the minutes from the August MPC. Carney avoided answering a question about how much support there was from the new framework at last week’s press conference. This may suggest that there was disagreement on the MPC. Evidence of significant disagreement may play GBP negative.”
“Overall we see greater scope for GBP to strengthen over the short-term against the EUR than the USD. Given last week’s announcement and the level of inflation in the Euro area, the pressure on the ECB to keep policy accommodative is far greater than it is for the BoE or the Fed – GBP/USD gains are expected to exhaust around 1.57.”