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8 Feb 2016
US: Labor market more robust than headline numbers suggest - Nomura
Research Team at Nomura, notes that the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that a net new 151k jobs were added to US nonfarm payrolls in January, below expectations (Nomura: 185k, Consensus: 190k).
Key Quotes
“This pace of job growth represents a step down from the Q4 average of 279k workers per month, but is consistent with the labor market growing near its underlying trend. Private payrolls increased by 158k, as government reduced payrolls by 7k after adding 11k jobs in December. Some of the strong government job gains towards the end of last year appear to be due to stronger demand for postal service workers during the holiday season.
Wage growth rebounded by a strong 0.47% in January after remaining unchanged in the prior month. The volatility in average hourly earnings over the past couple of months was likely due to calendar quirks. The 12-month change in average hourly earnings ticked down by 0.2pp to 2.5%, but remains relatively elevated. The recent trend in the year-over-year gains in earnings are indicative of a nascent pick up in wages.”
Key Quotes
“This pace of job growth represents a step down from the Q4 average of 279k workers per month, but is consistent with the labor market growing near its underlying trend. Private payrolls increased by 158k, as government reduced payrolls by 7k after adding 11k jobs in December. Some of the strong government job gains towards the end of last year appear to be due to stronger demand for postal service workers during the holiday season.
Wage growth rebounded by a strong 0.47% in January after remaining unchanged in the prior month. The volatility in average hourly earnings over the past couple of months was likely due to calendar quirks. The 12-month change in average hourly earnings ticked down by 0.2pp to 2.5%, but remains relatively elevated. The recent trend in the year-over-year gains in earnings are indicative of a nascent pick up in wages.”