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21 Mar 2016
China: Authorities expect a bounce in trade in March – ING
Tim Condon, Chief Economist at ING, expects the impact of the Chinese spending shock to persist and export growth in 2016 to be weaker than 2015’s -2.5%.
Key Quotes
“Commerce Minister Gao Hucheng told the China Development Forum that foreign trade would bounce in March from the January-February crash. Lunar New Year seasonality typically means a big sequential drop in average January-February exports (from the 4Q average) and a big sequential bounce in March. We think more than seasonal factors were behind this year’s unusually large, 25.8% January-February decline, in particular, a global spending shock from the 30% crash in global oil prices in December-January.
We expect the impact of the spending shock to persist and export growth in 2016 to be weaker than 2015’s -2.5%.”
Key Quotes
“Commerce Minister Gao Hucheng told the China Development Forum that foreign trade would bounce in March from the January-February crash. Lunar New Year seasonality typically means a big sequential drop in average January-February exports (from the 4Q average) and a big sequential bounce in March. We think more than seasonal factors were behind this year’s unusually large, 25.8% January-February decline, in particular, a global spending shock from the 30% crash in global oil prices in December-January.
We expect the impact of the spending shock to persist and export growth in 2016 to be weaker than 2015’s -2.5%.”