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5 May 2016
AUD/USD: bulls stepping back below key 0.7520 resistance
AUD/USD has tailed back on broad based USD demand from reaching close to the 0.7520 key resistance level after data overnight underpinned positive prospects for the Australian economy, despite the recent CPI results for Q1 and the RBA voicing their concerns for growth starting to moderate in the economy along with mixed jobs data, forcing the hand of the Central Bank to act.
Subsequently, the RBA cut rates by 25bps, a move that only 40% of the market had priced in to the value of the Aussie. However, it wasn't long ago that Stevens expressed that previous monetary policy had not fully come to fruition in a more upbeat tone from him last month.
Last night, Australia's March retail sales arrived in at 0.4% m/m vs 0.3% expected and 0% last. At the same time, the trade balance printed -2,163M vs -2,900M expected and -3,410M last.
Also, Scott Morrison, Australian treasurer, names Lowe who is the dep-governor to replace Stevens in September when he steps down after 10 years of appointment.
AUD/USD levels
We had been looking at a limited correction towards the 55 dma at 0.7524 post the positive Aussie data overnight, but should the bid pick up before the week is out, the next levels above there are the 50 dma at 0.7557 and a full recovery back to the 0.76 handle where the 20 dma resides at 0.7651.
To the downside, AUD/USD had been eroding the 2016 up-trend line at 0.7550 and took that out earlier in the week to then break a further key support at 0.7477 being the late March low.
0.7446 was a fresh low made earlier in the week and on a good nonfarm payrolls number, a break of 16th March lows at 0.7414 would give way to 0.7380 and 11th Oct highs with the possibility of bears making a break for the 100 dma at 0.7330.
Extra reading: Nonfarm Payrolls - "Fuhgeddabouit"!
Subsequently, the RBA cut rates by 25bps, a move that only 40% of the market had priced in to the value of the Aussie. However, it wasn't long ago that Stevens expressed that previous monetary policy had not fully come to fruition in a more upbeat tone from him last month.
Last night, Australia's March retail sales arrived in at 0.4% m/m vs 0.3% expected and 0% last. At the same time, the trade balance printed -2,163M vs -2,900M expected and -3,410M last.
Also, Scott Morrison, Australian treasurer, names Lowe who is the dep-governor to replace Stevens in September when he steps down after 10 years of appointment.
AUD/USD levels
We had been looking at a limited correction towards the 55 dma at 0.7524 post the positive Aussie data overnight, but should the bid pick up before the week is out, the next levels above there are the 50 dma at 0.7557 and a full recovery back to the 0.76 handle where the 20 dma resides at 0.7651.
To the downside, AUD/USD had been eroding the 2016 up-trend line at 0.7550 and took that out earlier in the week to then break a further key support at 0.7477 being the late March low.
0.7446 was a fresh low made earlier in the week and on a good nonfarm payrolls number, a break of 16th March lows at 0.7414 would give way to 0.7380 and 11th Oct highs with the possibility of bears making a break for the 100 dma at 0.7330.
Extra reading: Nonfarm Payrolls - "Fuhgeddabouit"!