U.S. presidential candidates: vastly different effects on the U.S. economy - Nomura

Analysts at Nomura reported on key takeaways last week around the US Congress and the economy

Key Quotes:

"The two main US presidential candidates have laid out vastly different economic plans that would have vastly different effects on the U.S. economy.

However, for some of the main pillars of those economic plans to become a reality, both houses of Congress (the House of Representatives and the Senate) would have to concur, especially when it comes to fiscal policy. The main takeaway from our analysis is that the House is likely to remain in Republican hands and the Senate remains a tossup.

In the base case scenario, we expect a status quo outcome for fiscal policy if Clinton wins. If Trump wins, then the extent to which he is able to implement his fiscal ideas could be constrained if the Democrats win control of the Senate. However, even if the Democrats lose the Senate, they will have a sizable minority that could negotiate for a different and more muted fiscal package."