EUR/GBP: price in a chop, currently supported at 21-hr SMA, where next?

• EUR/GBP: in a chop, supported at the 21-hr SMA.
• EUR/GBP: plenty going on behind the scenes for the cross on Thursday. 

EUR/GBP has been in a chop since meeting the European session highs of 0.8863 where the now descending 200-hr SMA capped the cross once again. 
Currently, EUR/GBP is trading at 0.8837, up 0.09% on the day, having posted a daily high at 0.8866 and low at 0.8823, supported by the 21-hr SMA.

EUR/GBP was running higher with cable caught in a bearish and steep drift lower post yesterday's FOMC minutes that transpired into a heavy loss for sterling bulls. Cable was offered again in European trade on the release of the UK Q4 GDP was revised lower to 1.4%, (cross subsequently rallied to test Wednesday's high, crashing through the level and onto aforementioned highs before dropping back). 

At the same time, we had the release of German IFO where business optimism in the exporting nation fell from an all-time high in February. However, the data shows that climate remains buoyant in historical terms and focus quickly shifted to the ECB minutes where some council members favoured dropping the easing bias.  In other news, ECB's Rimsevics who has been under pressure to resign said he rules out stepping down temporarily and repeats his denials of all charges against him. 

The Brexit saga continues

Next on the agenda will be headlines related to the UK's Prime Minister who will host her most senior cabinet ministers for dinner Thursday night when they meet at her country retreat. The scrutinised Prime Minister will be attempting to find some common ground between them in order to agree what kind of Brexit trade deal they want with the EU. The UK's government is under pressure to spell out in detail what it wants to secure from Brexit talks after saying the UK wants a “deep and special” partnership with the EU. However, UK government ministers have been at odds over how closely the EU and UK should align after exit day in March 2019.

EUR/GBP levels

Meanwhile, and from a technical point of view, EUR/GBP is in the middle of its range while the market last week reversed just ahead of the 0.8926 mid-January high and the 8955 top of the channel, as noted by analysts at Commerzbank:

"Initial support lies circa 0.8800. Key nearby support is offered by the December and January lows at 0.8689/87. While these hold we remain unable to rule out recovery to the 0.9034 October 2017 high." That is a level where the analysts argued would likely guard a run towards the 0.9071/0.9175 61.8% and 78.6% Fibonacci retracements.