AUD/NZD threading water at 1.0650 support

• The AUD/NZD is currently supported at the 1.0650 level.
• A clear brekdown would open the doors to the 1.0500 level.

The AUD/NZD is currently trading at around 1.0643 down 0.29% on the day so far as trade wars intensify between the US and China.  

Earlier in the week the RBNZ left its interest rate unchanged for the 16th month in a row without surprise while the Reserva Bank of Australia in its RBA minutes offered also little new information, stating: “GDP growth is expected to exceed potential growth over 2018, further progress on jobless rate, and CPI to likely be gradual. Yet, household spending and wage growth outlook are still uncertain, warranting" careful monitoring”. 

AUD/NZD weekly chart

The AUD/NZD is apparently about to finish the week on a bearish note. The market could contain prices above 1.0750 and the 200-period simple moving average as the bears even manage to trade now below the 100-period simple moving average. Both RSI and MACD indicators are in negative territories suggesting the bear momentum is well underway as the 6-week trading range might come to an end. The price has broken and rejected the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement from the July-October 2017 bull run. 

AUD/NZD daily chart

The 1.0640 level is the level the bulls are currently defending from bear attack. On Monday 19, and Tuesday 20 March, the bulls were able to form a micro double bottom and drive the market back up to 1.0750 but the move has been completely retraced on Thursday and Friday. The RSI is not confirming the last bear leg as it is posting a slight bullish divergence, while the MACD has turned into a bearish mode. 1.0600 was an important level back in the summer 2017 and might be the last bastion for bulls before they give up. Further down support I seen a the 1.0500 psychological level. To the upside bulls need to re-conquer the 1.0750 resistance previously tested this week; quickly followed by the 1.0800 top of the range which now may seem like miles away.  

AUD/NZD 1-hour chart

While price action has been trading down, the RSI is showing a positive divergence on the 1-hour chart. However, bulls will need to break out above the last swing high at 1.0670 to have a chance of a rebound.