Germany: Downside risks for inflation - TDS

Analysts at TDS see downside risks for German inflation today and consensus is looking for a sharp jump from 1.2% y/y in Feb to 1.6% y/y in Mar, but TDS see a gain of only about half that, with a rise to 1.4% y/y.

Key Quotes

“This is due in part to weakening core inflation, which we expect to slip a tick to 1.3% y/y, offsetting gains in the food and energy components. However, with Easter falling in March this year, it does present a small upside risk to our forecast. The German unemployment claims rate is also out, with markets looking for an improvement to 5.3%.”