US next week data: Q1 GDP, PMI and Goods Orders - Danske Bank

Data to be released next week in the US includes GDP, PMIs, and capital goods orders. Analysts from Danske Bank, look for US Q1 GDP to be around 2.0% q/q annualized.

Key Quotes: 

“In the US, the preliminary Q1 GDP growth estimate is due for release on Friday. There are signs that economic activity slowed in the first quarter, with growth in consumer spending coming out weaker than first expected and the investment indicator not as strong as previously. AtlantaFed suggests GDP growth was 2.0% q/q AR while NYFed’s GDP indicator says 2.8%. We believe the former is more likely than the latter.”

“We remain optimistic about full-year GDP growth due to the tax package among others and hence we expect the Fed to continue its gradual hiking cycle.”

“Markit PMIs are due for release on Monday. Empire regional PMIs fell in March which points to a slowdown in manufacturing sector. The gap between ISM and Markit PMI manufacturing remains a mystery although we consider ISM to have come in at a too high level. We believe both indices will fall over the coming months.”

“On Tuesday, capital goods orders figures for March are due to be released, which will give us an impression of whether investments will gain momentum after a few weak months. We still expect that investments will drive US growth to a greater degree this year compared to the past couple of years.”