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12 Apr 2013
Forex Flash: BoJ goes nuclear - Societe Generale
FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - Sebastien Galy, Senior FX Strategist at Societe Generale believes that the BoJ has gone nuclear with its policies.
He notes external factors such as softer US growth and euro area (EA) troubles, may slow the yen sell-off in Q2, but he expects further weakness over 6-12 months. He writes, “With the BoJ now embracing QE, the relative dynamic of US and Japan's monetary base is set to reverse sharply. The BoJ will also crowd Japanese investors out of JGBs into foreign assets. With the Fed's exit discussion set to heat up this summer, the BoJ's non-conventional easing magnifies policy divergence. We will revise our Q1 2014 forecast for USD/JPY from 103 to 110 and now express our bearish yen view through a 6M seagull.”
He notes external factors such as softer US growth and euro area (EA) troubles, may slow the yen sell-off in Q2, but he expects further weakness over 6-12 months. He writes, “With the BoJ now embracing QE, the relative dynamic of US and Japan's monetary base is set to reverse sharply. The BoJ will also crowd Japanese investors out of JGBs into foreign assets. With the Fed's exit discussion set to heat up this summer, the BoJ's non-conventional easing magnifies policy divergence. We will revise our Q1 2014 forecast for USD/JPY from 103 to 110 and now express our bearish yen view through a 6M seagull.”