According to analysts at Nordea Markets, the week ahead has Euro-area monetary growth on offer on Tuesday 28 May, and they think these numbers are important as the M1 growth number tends to lead both PMI and GDP developments.

Key Quotes

“While the trade (and tech?) war risks exterminate all kinds of green shoots, the recent pick-up in M1 growth indicates that EA growth may bottom in the second half of this year.”

“There is also a raft of US regional surveys released during the week, ranging from Dallas Fed (Tuesday 28 May) to Richmond Fed (Wednesday 29 May) and Chicago PMI (Friday 31 May). The signs from Philly Fed and New York Fed in May indicate that US sentiment has rebounded – possibly helped by the jump in Chinese imports as well as by the previous easing of financial conditions in Asia.”

“China’s PMI manufacturing by the FLP will be published on Friday 31 May. The recent plunge in the Shanghai composite index suggests that we are likely to see a weaker figure, as well as a weaker PMI imports component.”

“Following the EU parliamentary elections this weekend (polling stations close: Sunday CET10:00). The European Council has scheduled a meeting already on Tuesday 28 May.”

“Finally, there’re German and Italian inflation data (Friday 31 May), which are released ahead of the more important EA flash estimates on 4 June. We expect EA core inflation to fall back, as prices drop after the Easter occurring in April.”