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15 May 2014
Highlights to come, Yellen in focus - RBS
FXStreet (Guatemala) - Strategists at RBS explained the forthcoming highlights on the the calendar.
Key Quotes:
"Fed Chairman Janet Yellen is due to speak this evening on small business as US long-term rates test multi-month lows. The Chairman's speech is unlikely to hint at a change in the overall dovish FOMC message, particularly as she spoke on the economy at length just last week. When speaking about the labour market last week, she reminded lawmakers not to read too much into single-month indicators - "We always tell ourselves, and I'll state, I think one should not make too much of any single month's numbers." We do not expect a change in stance despite firmer CPI data in April. (Of course, the Fed's preferred measure of inflation is the PCE deflator, released later this month)".
"The slowdown in the housing market has taken on an increased importance and Chairman Yellen warned last week that the recent flattening out in housing activity could prove more protracted than currently expected. Indeed, housing market indicators have largely failed to rebound as the weather improved, despite homebuilding being a particularly weather sensitive industry. Our expectation for a modest bounce in housing starts to 975K is slightly below the consensus and reflective of an only modest weather related improvement. The NAHB homebuilder confidence index underwhelmed in May and the April reading was revised down from 47 to 46, further reflecting the risks of a prolonged stagnation in housing market momentum".
"Elsewhere on the calendar, the notable releases are largely in continental Europe, including first quarter payrolls in France and the European trade balance for March. As usual, the ECB announces weekly LTRO repayments on Fridays. The final revision to March industrial production in Japan is released as well".
Key Quotes:
"Fed Chairman Janet Yellen is due to speak this evening on small business as US long-term rates test multi-month lows. The Chairman's speech is unlikely to hint at a change in the overall dovish FOMC message, particularly as she spoke on the economy at length just last week. When speaking about the labour market last week, she reminded lawmakers not to read too much into single-month indicators - "We always tell ourselves, and I'll state, I think one should not make too much of any single month's numbers." We do not expect a change in stance despite firmer CPI data in April. (Of course, the Fed's preferred measure of inflation is the PCE deflator, released later this month)".
"The slowdown in the housing market has taken on an increased importance and Chairman Yellen warned last week that the recent flattening out in housing activity could prove more protracted than currently expected. Indeed, housing market indicators have largely failed to rebound as the weather improved, despite homebuilding being a particularly weather sensitive industry. Our expectation for a modest bounce in housing starts to 975K is slightly below the consensus and reflective of an only modest weather related improvement. The NAHB homebuilder confidence index underwhelmed in May and the April reading was revised down from 47 to 46, further reflecting the risks of a prolonged stagnation in housing market momentum".
"Elsewhere on the calendar, the notable releases are largely in continental Europe, including first quarter payrolls in France and the European trade balance for March. As usual, the ECB announces weekly LTRO repayments on Fridays. The final revision to March industrial production in Japan is released as well".