Canada: Most of the “easy” employment gains are now probably behind us – NFB

Data released on Friday, showed employment rose by 378K in September in Canada. According to analysts at National Bank of Canada, the recovery is now likely entering a new phase as most of the quick employment gains, like employees returning to their old jobs, are now probably behind.

Key Quotes:

“The September employment report came in a lot better than expected, with job creation exceeding expectations by a wide margin. The details were encouraging, with gains concentrated in the full-time category. Employment in the private sector also fared rather well.”

“Still, the recovery remains highly uneven. While employment in some sectors has fully recovered from the COVID-19 shock (finance/insurance, education, utilities and manufacturing), other segments continue to suffer, especially those most affected by social distancing measures.”

“The Canadian recovery is now likely entering a new phase. Indeed, most of the “easy” employment gains (i.e. employees returning to their old jobs) are now probably behind us. Going forward, job creation will depend on new positions being created and will likely hinge on a vaccine becoming available to the general public. Moreover, the reintroduction of social distancing measures by some provincial governments should weigh on employment going forward.”